The number of people living with type 1 diabetes around the world is set to jump by nearly a third over the next 25 years, according to new estimates being presented at the Annual Meeting of the European Association for the Study of Diabetes (EASD) in Milan in September.
By 2049, an estimated 12.1 million people will be living with type 1 diabetes globally, up from 9.4 million in 2025. That’s an increase of 2.7 million, or 29%. The number of new cases each year is also expected to rise by 14%. The projections come from a new tool called the DIAMOND-T1D model, led by Professor Anders Green at the Steno Diabetes Center Odense in Denmark.
What the Numbers Show
The rise will be felt strongly in high-income countries. The UK, for example, is expected to see the number of people living with type 1 diabetes climb by around a third, from about 313,700 in 2025 to more than 420,000 by 2049. In the US, the total is projected to grow by over half a million, reaching more than 2 million people. Italy, host of the upcoming EASD meeting, will see a smaller rise of around 16%, taking its total to about 239,000.
Interestingly, the rate at which new cases appear each year in these wealthier countries is expected to stay fairly stable. The rising totals largely come from people living longer with the condition rather than a surge in new diagnoses. The authors suggest that the high numbers in countries such as the UK, US and Australia reflect a mix of genetics, environmental factors, and the fact that these countries are simply better at spotting cases thanks to strong healthcare systems.
In low-income countries, the picture is different. Tanzania, for example, is expected to see its yearly number of new cases nearly double (from about 3,275 to 6,177) between 2025 and 2049. The number of people living with type 1 diabetes there will also roughly double, though it will remain low in absolute terms compared with wealthier nations, going from around 19,100 to nearly 39,700.
Why Better Estimates Matter
Reliable data on type 1 diabetes has always been thin on the ground, especially in low- and middle-income countries. Yet without accurate numbers, it’s hard for governments to plan services, order enough insulin, or push for the kind of care people need.
Better estimates also help drive global efforts like the World Health Organization’s Global Diabetes Compact, which aims to reduce the risk of diabetes and make sure that everyone diagnosed gets fair, affordable, high-quality care.
How the New Model Is Different
The DIAMOND-T1D model does something previous estimates haven’t. It takes into account when insulin actually became available in each country, using this alongside data on incidence, population age, and survival. Because insulin transformed type 1 diabetes from a fatal condition into a manageable one, the year it arrived in a country matters enormously for how many people are alive with the condition today.
The model can produce global, regional, and country-level estimates stretching from 1900 all the way to 2050, and it has been tested against real-world registry data from Denmark and Scotland. Soon, it will be released as an open-access web tool that anyone can use to explore different scenarios by tweaking key assumptions.
The Human Toll
Children and teenagers make up a large share of the picture. Globally, 42% of new cases in 2025 were estimated to be in people aged 0–19, ranging from 37% in high-income countries to 49% in low-income ones. Tragically, young people also make up a disproportionate share of deaths from type 1 diabetes in poorer countries. In low-income countries, 34% of all deaths among people with type 1 diabetes are in the 0-19 age group, compared to just 4% in high-income countries.
Overall, deaths among people living with type 1 diabetes are expected to climb from around 361,000 in 2025 to over 537,000 in 2049.
The Bottom Line
While much of the rise reflects a positive story (people living longer with the condition) it also underscores a growing need for insulin, monitoring equipment, and skilled care, particularly in parts of the world where access is still patchy.
The authors concluded: “We estimate a rising global T1D burden, underscoring the need to continue to improve access to insulin and quality of care, particularly in low-resource settings. Our prevalence estimates are lower than existing estimates from other sources including the T1D Index and the Global Burden of Disease Study mainly because of more conservative assumptions about survival in persons with T1D, particularly in older ages and low-income and middle-income countries. In this context, the DIAMOND-T1D model offers a novel approach that allows changes in key assumptions on age-specific incidence rates and survival in T1D, enabling informed decision-making, and at the same time making the model gradually more precise when more T1D data becomes available.”