The planet is warming at a faster rate than at any point in recorded history, and the evidence is now overwhelming, according to the latest Indicators of Global Climate Change (IGCC) report, published in the journal Earth System Science Data. Human activity pushed global warming to 1.37°C in 2025, and we’re on track to pass the critical 1.5°C threshold within about four years.
The findings come from More than 70 scientists from 56 institutions across 17 countries contributed to the study, including several lead authors from the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
Heat is building up fast
One of the most striking findings concerns something called the Earth’s energy imbalance, essentially a measure of how quickly heat is piling up in the climate system.
Professor Piers Forster, Director of the Priestley Centre for Climate Futures at the University of Leeds and lead author of the report, explained: “A key indicator is the Earth’s energy imbalance, which measures how fast heat is accumulating in the climate system, and provides a crucial measure of the pace of climate change. Without human influence, it should be close to zero, but it has been growing since the 1970s and is now at a record high, doubling in recent decades.”
In plain terms: the Earth is soaking up far more heat than it’s giving off, and the gap is widening.
Emissions hit a new record
The report also confirms that global greenhouse gas emissions reached an all-time high in 2024, hitting 56.8 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent, mostly from burning fossil fuels. Meanwhile, 2025 was the third warmest year ever recorded.
Dr Samantha Burgess, Strategic Lead for Climate at the Copernicus Climate Change Service, said: “Our study demonstrates that nearly all of the warming over the last decade is driven by human activities. The impacts on livelihoods and ecosystems are already being felt worldwide, and will accelerate as temperatures continue to increase.”
Human-caused warming is now running at around 0.27°C per decade, the fastest pace on record. Part of the reason is a slightly unexpected one: efforts to clean up air pollution have reduced sulfur dioxide emissions, which previously had a small cooling effect. With that “mask” lifting, the underlying warming caused by greenhouse gases is becoming more visible.
Dr Matt Palmer, Science Fellow at the UK Met Office, summed it up simply: “It comes down to a simple principle: we are emitting more greenhouse gases than ever before, causing rising greenhouse gas levels which are trapping more and more heat in the atmosphere and pushing the world out of balance.”
Oceans rising, ice melting
The extra heat is reshaping the planet in visible ways. Dr Karina Von Schuckmann, Senior Advisor at Mercator Ocean International, said: “The Earth’s energy imbalance is growing fast, driving changes in every component of the climate system, including ocean and continental warming, permafrost thawing, ice loss, and sea level rise.”
Sea levels are climbing at an accelerating pace. Dr Aimée Slangen, Research Leader at the Royal Netherlands Institute for Sea Research, said: “In 2025, global sea level rise reached a new record of 23 cm of rise since 1901, at a rate of around 1.8 mm per year, and this rate is speeding up fast. This might sound small, but even this level of change is increasing coastal flooding in low-lying areas around the world, harming livelihoods and ecosystems.”
Marine heatwaves are also surging. In 2025 alone, the world experienced 65 days of them. Professor June-Yi Lee of Pusan National University noted: “The number of days experiencing marine heatwaves has more than tripled globally between 1991 and 2025. These events harm marine ecosystems while threatening food production, economies, and coastal protection.”
A shrinking window
The world’s remaining “carbon budget” — the amount of CO₂ we can still emit while keeping warming below 1.5°C — is now just 130 billion tonnes. At current rates, that will be gone in about three years.
Dr Chris Smith of the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis warned that funding cuts threaten the very datasets used to track these changes: “Without this, future assessments will be much more difficult at a time when urgent climate action is needed.”
Forster, P. M., Walsh, T., Smith, C., Lamb, W. F., Lamboll, R., et al. Indicators of Global Climate Change 2025: annual update of key indicators of the state of the climate system and human influence, Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 18, 3889–3933, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-18-3889-2026, 2026.