A research team led by the University of Oxford highlighted how cocoa production will be affected by climate change. On the plus side, the authors also suggest better farm management ways to boost productivity without expanding plantations into forests.
Cocoa (Theobroma cacao L.) is a crucial crop for millions of small-holder farmers across the tropics and supports a global chocolate industry valued at over USD 100 billion annually. An increasing demand for this crop to make chocolate has led to expansion and intensification of farming practices, often at the expense of local biodiversity and long-term sustainability.
This study focused on the three major cocoa-producing countries—Brazil, Ghana, and Indonesia—which represent 33% of global cocoa production. The results show that simply increasing pollination rates above current levels could boost yields by 20%. In contrast, locations with warmer temperatures (up to 7 degrees warmer) had 20-31% lower cocoa yields. Taken together, these results highlight how climate change can potentially have a very damaging impact on cocoa production.
“Cocoa is pollinated by tiny insects such as midges and thrips, and it comes as quite a surprise that most of the time there simply isn’t enough pollination happening to produce the cocoa crop that is possible,” Dr. Acheampong Atta-Boateng, who recently completed his doctoral work at the University of Oxford.
To counteract these problems, the team suggested strategies to enhance pollination, such as maintaining leaf litter and other understory biomass, preserving soil organic matter, providing moderate shade, and reducing agricultural chemical use. These methods increase pollinator abundance and help regulate plantation temperatures, ensuring long-term plantation resilience.
“This research shows that sustainable agricultural methods can significantly improve cocoa yields without farm expansion or intensification. By adopting biodiversity-centred, climate-resilient farming techniques, the cocoa sector can both increase production and safeguard farmers’ livelihoods,” said Dr Tonya Lander from the University of Oxford.
“The rising demand for cocoa and the short-term economic benefits to farmers has led to plantation expansion and ecological homogenization at the expense of biodiversity and vital ecosystem services, like pollination. This study highlights the long-term risks of this approach and how pollination can be a solution that works alongside climate-resilient agricultural systems to achieve long-term, ecologically and financially sustainable solutions,” said Dr Tom Wanger of Westlake University, China.
Lander, T.A., Atta-Boateng, A., Toledo-Hernández, M. et al. Global chocolate supply is limited by low pollination and high temperatures. Commun Earth Environ 6, 97 (2025). https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-025-02072-z