Warming and climate change may lead to less frequent but more devastating hailstorms, according to a study published in Nature Communications.
A team of researchers from Newcastle University and the University of Bristol, UK, used European-wide simulations to predict future hailstorms caused by global warming. The results show that severe hailstorms are likely to become less common but more dangerous when they happen.
Hailstorms are classified as severe if they have a diameter of 2 cm, while hail with a diameter of 5 cm or more is considered very severe. Bigger hailstones are more likely to cause damage than smaller ones, and even a slight increase in their size could outweigh any benefits from fewer hailstorms.
The team believes multiple factors will likely cause this decrease. Hail forms higher in the atmosphere as it warms, where storm updrafts are weaker, giving hail more time to melt before reaching the ground. Another factor is the weakening large-scale circulation, affecting the vertical profile of winds and leading to conditions that are not beneficial for forming thunderstorms.
Notably, the authors found that, in the future, warm seasons may feature warmer thunderstorms similar to hail-producing storms seen in the tropics, where the largest hailstones can still reach the surface. The findings suggest that these storms will become more frequent over southern Europe, leading to regional increases in severe hail frequency.
“Our findings indicate that the effects of climate change on severe thunderstorms are more complex than previously thought, and high-resolution models can produce results that differ significantly from earlier research. Society may need to prepare for less frequent, yet more damaging hail events locally, in a 5-degree warmer future,” said lead author, Dr Abdullah Kahraman, Senior Researcher in Severe Weather and Climate Change, School of Engineering, Newcastle University.
“These results are very concerning. They imply we need to be prepared for tropical-type hailstorms impacting Europe in the future, which are associated with very large hailstones that can cause severe impacts. This possibility also extends to the UK, although the risk of hail here remains low into the future, added Professor Lizzie Kendon, Head of Climate Projections at the UK Met Office and Professor of Climate Science at the University of Bristol.
Overall, results show that the possibility for very severe hailstones decreases around Central Europe and remains low over the British Isles and Northern Europe land areas. In contrast, it’s likely to increase in Southern Europe in autumn and winter, balancing decreases in summer and spring.
“As a society, we need to be better prepared for unprecedented extreme events, and this study shows that future storms in the Mediterranean could bring giant hail, with devastating impacts. Recent hailstorms have caused significant direct damage to properties and infrastructure, crops, and even aircraft,” concluded co-author Professor Hayley Fowler, Professor of Climate Change Impacts, Newcastle University School of Engineering.
Kahraman, A., Kendon, E.J., Fowler, H.J. et al. Future changes in severe hail across Europe, including regional emergence of warm-type thunderstorms. Nat Commun 16, 8438 (2025). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-62780-0